自1945年以降，覺得以英美為主流的國際政治經濟學，先天隱藏了軍事強大以及國家安全無虞兩項命題。
電影《間諜橋》、《驚爆13天》（Thirteen Days）、《尼克森》、( Nixon ,1995 )、《00:30淩晨密令》(台)《獵殺本·拉登》( Zero Dark Thirty 2012)、《天啟四騎士》( Four Horsemen,2012 )。
而第三世界國家，則並非如此，在國家生存有困難，內政權力接續傳承治理與傳承都有問題的時候，第三世界國家的選擇是什麼?一，求國家經濟發展現代化脫離被殖民附庸的命運。二，能夠走上獨立發展之路。沒想到這兩個目標並不容易達成。
第三次抵消戰略
http://diary.blog.yam.com/bothstraits_yblog/article/11239609
美國前國防部長蓋茲
http://diary.blog.yam.com/bothstraits_yblog/article/11179589
冷戰大將肯楠與尼茲
http://diary.blog.yam.com/bothstraits_yblog/article/11140351
伊拉克戰爭改變美國
http://diary.blog.yam.com/bothstraits_yblog/article/11140345
威脅俄羅斯，清剿伊斯蘭?
http://diary.blog.yam.com/bothstraits_yblog/article/11020607
Bretton Woods System and 1944 Agreement
How Bretton Woods Introduced a New World Order
The Bretton Woods system was a remarkable achievement of global coordination. It established the U.S. dollar as the global currency, taking the world off of the gold standard. It created the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund
(IMF). These two global organizations would monitor the new system. It
established America as the dominant power behind these two
organizations and the world economy.That's because the United States was the only country with the ability to print dollars,
The Bretton Woods Agreement
Under the Bretton Woods agreement, countries promised that their central banks would maintain fixed exchange rates between their currencies and the dollar. How exactly would they do this? If a country's currency value became too weak relative to the dollar, the bank would buy up its currency in foreign exchange markets. That would decrease the supply, which would automatically raise the price. If its currency became too high, the bank would print more. That would increase the supply and automatically lower its price.Members of the Bretton Woods system agreed to avoid any trade warfare. For example, they wouldn't lower their currencies strictly to increase trade. But they could regulate their currencies under certain conditions. For example, they could take action if foreign direct investment began to destabilize their economies.
They could also adjust their currency values to rebuild after a war.
How It Replaced the Gold Standard
Before Bretton Woods, most countries followed the gold standard. That meant each country guaranteed that it would redeem its currency for its value in gold. After Bretton Woods, each member agreed to redeem its currency for U.S. dollars, not gold.What Is the History of the Gold Standard?
When the Dollar Was Backed By Gold
Gold has been used as the currency of choice throughout history. The earliest known use was in 643 B.C in Lydia (present-day Turkey). Gold was part of a naturally occurring compound known as electrum, which the Lydians used to make coins. By 560 B.C., the Lydians had figured out how to separate the gold from the silver, and so created the first truly gold coin.
In those days, the value of the coin was based solely on the value of the metal within. Therefore, the country with the
most gold had the most wealth. That's why Spain, Portugal, and England
sent Columbus and other explorers to the New World -- to get more gold
so they could be wealthier than each other.
Introduction of the Gold Standard
When gold was found at Sutter's Ranch in 1848, it inspired the Gold Rush to California and the unification of western America. In 1861, U.S. Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase printed the first U.S. paper currency.In fact, by the mid-1800s, most countries wanted to standardize transactions in the booming world trade market. They adopted the gold standard. It guaranteed that the government would redeem any amount of paper money for its value in gold. That meant transactions no longer had to be done with heavy gold bullion or coins. It also increased the trust needed for successful global trade. Paper currency now had guaranteed value tied to something real.
Unfortunately, gold prices and currency values dropped when miners found new gold deposits.
In 1913, the Federal Reserve
was created to stabilize gold and currency values. Before it could get
up and running, World War I broke out, and European countries
suspended the gold standard so they could print enough money to pay for
their military involvement. Unfortunately, printing money created hyperinflation.
After the war, countries realized the value of tying their currency to a
guaranteed value in gold. For that reason, most countries returned to a
modified gold standard. (History.com, "Gold Standard")
How the Gold Standard Made the Great Depression Worse
Once the Great Depression hit with full force, countries once again had to abandon the gold standard. When the stock market crashed in 1929, investors began trading in currencies and commodities. As the price of gold rose, people exchanged their dollars for gold. It worsened when banks began failing. People started hoarding gold because they didn't trust any financial institution.The Federal Reserve kept raising interest rates, trying to make dollars more valuable and dissuade people from further depleting the U.S. gold reserves. These higher rates worsened the Depression by making the cost of doing business more expensive. Many companies went bankrupt, creating record levels of unemployment.
On March 3,1933, the newly-elected President Roosevelt
closed the banks in response to a run on the gold reserves at the
Federal Reserve Bank of New York. By the time banks re-opened on March
13, they had turned in all their gold to the Federal Reserve and could
no longer redeem dollars for gold.No one could export gold.
On
April 5, he ordered Americans to turn in their gold in exchange for
dollars. He did this to prohibit hoarding of gold, and the redemption
of gold by other countries. This created the gold reserves at Fort Knox, and made sure the U.S. held the world's largest supply of gold. (Source: Cato Institute, The Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard in the U.S., June 20, 2013)On January 30, 1934, the Gold Reserve Act prohibited private ownership of gold, except under license. It allowed the government to pay its debts in dollars, not gold. The President was authorized to devalue the gold dollar by 40%.
He increased the price of gold,
which had been $20.67 per ounce for 100 years, to $35 per ounce. The
government's gold reserves increased in valued from $4.033 billion
to $7.348 billion. This effectively devalued the dollar by 60%. (Source:
Bloomberg, How Franklin Roosevelt Secretly Ended the Gold Standard,
March 21, 2013; FEE.org, Gold Policy in the 1930s)
The outbreak of World War II ended the Depression, allowing countries to go back on a modified gold standard.The 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement set the exchange value for all currencies in terms of gold. It obligated member countries to convert foreign official holdings of their currencies into gold at these par values. Gold was set at $35 per ounce. For more, see Gold Price History.
The United States held most of the world's gold. As a result, most countries simply pegged the value of their currency to the dollar instead. Central banks maintained fixed exchange rates between their currencies and the dollar. They did this by buying their own country's currency in foreign exchange markets if their currency became too low relative to the dollar. If it became too high, they'd print more of their currency and sell it.
As a result, most countries no longer needed to exchange their currency for gold. The dollar had replaced it. As a result, the value of the dollar increased --- even though its worth in gold remained the same. This made the U.S. dollar the de facto world currency. (Source: National Mining Association, History of Gold)
End of the Gold Standard
In 1960, the U.S. held $19.4 billion in gold reserves (including $1.6 billion in the International Monetary Fund), enough to cover the $18.7 billion in foreign dollars outstanding.However, as the U.S. economy prospered, Americans bought more imported goods, paying in dollars. This large balance of payments deficit worried foreign governments that the United States would no longer back up the dollar in gold.
Also, the Soviet Union had become a large oil producer. It was accumulating U.S. dollars in its foreign reserves since oil is priced in dollar. It was afraid that the United Stated would seize its bank accounts as a tactic in the Cold War. Therefore, the USSR deposited its dollar reserves in European banks. These became known as eurodollars.
By 1970, the United States only held $14.5 billion in gold against foreign dollar holdings of $45.7 billion. At the same time, President Nixon's economic policies had created stagflation. This double-digit inflation reduced the eurodollar's value. More and more banks started redeeming their holdings for gold. The United States could no longer meets its obligation. (Source: "Evolution of the Forex Market," OANDA)
The gold standard ended on August 15, 1971. That's when Nixon changed the dollar/gold relationship to $38 per ounce. He no longer allowed the Fed to redeem dollars with gold. That made the gold standard virtually meaningless, since it was on paper only. The U.S. government repriced gold to $42 per ounce in 1973, and then decoupled the value of the dollar from gold altogether in 1976. The price of gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the free market. (Source: Craig K. Elwell, "Brief History of the Gold Standard in the United States," Congressional Research Service, June 3, 2011. "Fuss Over Dollar Devaluation," Time, October 4, 1971)
Once the gold standard was dropped, countries began printing more of their own currency. Inflation usually resulted, but for the most part abandoning the gold standard created more economic growth.
However, gold has never lost its appeal as an asset of real value. Whenever recessions or inflation looms, investors return to gold as a safe haven. It reached its record high of $1,895 an ounce on September 5, 2011.
Why dollars? The U.S. held
three-fourths of the world's supply of gold. The dollar's value was 1/35
of an ounce of gold. In a way, the world was still on somewhat of a
gold standard.
The dollar had now become a substitute for gold. As a result, the value of the dollar began to increase relative to other currencies. Now, there was more demand
for it, even though its worth in gold remained the same. This
discrepancy in value planted the seed for the collapse of the Bretton
Woods system three decades later.Why It Was Needed
Until World War I, most countries were on the gold standard. They went off so they could print the currency needed to pay for their war costs. It caused hyperinflation, as the supply of money overwhelmed the demand. The value of money fell so dramatically that, in some cases, people needed wheelbarrows full of cash just to buy a loaf of bread. After the war, countries returned to the safety of the gold standard.
All went well until the Great Depression. After the 1929 stock market crash, investors switched to forex trading and commodities. It drove up the price of gold, resulting in people redeeming their dollars for gold. The Federal Reserve made things worse by defending the nation's gold reserve by raising interest rates.It's no wonder that, as World War II wound down, countries were ready to abandon a pure gold standard.
The Bretton Woods system gave nations more flexibility than a strict adherence to the gold standard, but less volatility
than no standard at all. A member country still retained the ability to
alter its currency's value if needed to correct a "fundamental
disequilibrium" in its current account balance. (Source: Benjamin Cohen, Bretton Woods; Time A Brief History of Bretton Woods)Role of the IMF and World Bank
The Bretton Woods system could not have worked without the IMF. That's because member countries needed it to bail them out if their currency values got too low.
They'd need a kind of global
central bank they could borrow from in case they needed to adjust their
currency's value, and didn't have the funds themselves. Otherwise, they
would just slap on trade barriers or raise interest rates.
The
Bretton Woods countries decided against giving the IMF the power of a
global central bank, to print money as needed. Instead, they agreed to
contribute to a fixed pool of national currencies and gold to be held by
the IMF. Each member of the Bretton Woods system was then entitled to
borrow what it needed, within the limits of its contributions. The IMF
was also responsible for enforcing the Bretton Woods agreement.The World Bank, despite its name, was not the world's central bank. At the time of the Bretton Woods agreement, the World Bank was set up to lend to the European countries devastated by World War II. Now the purpose of the World Bank is to loan money to economic development projects in emerging market countries.
The Collapse of the Bretton Woods System
In 1971, the U.S. was suffering from massive stagflation. That's a deadly combination of inflation and recession. It was partly a result of the dollar's role as a global currency. In response, President Nixon started to deflate the dollar's value in gold. Nixon revalued the dollar to 1/38 of an ounce of gold, then 1/42 of an ounce.But the plan backfired. It created a run on the U.S. gold reserves at Fort Knox as people redeemed their quickly devaluing dollars for gold. In 1973, Nixon unhooked the value of gold from altogether. Without price controls, gold quickly shot up to $120 per ounce in the free market. The Bretton Woods system was over. (Source: Time, Fuss Over Dollar Devaluation, October 4, 1971)
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